UK energy operator sets out roadmap to clean power and net-zero

The UK-based National Energy System Operator (NESO) has published its 2025 Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero, outlining a set of pathways to decarbonise Britain’s energy system by 2050 and reach clean power by 2030.

Released alongside a new Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, the report calls for “bold and sustained action” across all sectors of the economy and identifies green gases, electrification, demand-side flexibility, and infrastructure investment as critical enablers of success.

Claire Dykta, Strategy and Policy Director at NESO, an independent public body responsible for managing UK energy networks, said the UK is entering a new era of energy transition shaped by four waves of action: foundation, acceleration, growth, and horizon.

“Delivering a clean power system in 2030 is an important milestone but there remains a great deal to do,” she said. “The next few years are critical, both in making progress and in preparing for the waves to come.”

The scenarios, which are not predictions but modelling exercises to explore the consequences of different choices, reflect the need for coordinated investment in renewables, low-carbon fuels and strategic planning across electricity, gas, hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure.

All three net zero-aligned scenarios – Holistic Transition, Electric Engagement and Hydrogen Evolution – eliminate unabated gas use by 2050.

NESO identified a growing role for low-carbon gases in all pathways, especially hydrogen and biomethane. In the Holistic Transition scenario, hydrogen demand rises to 119 TWh by 2050, while biomethane is scaled up for injection into existing gas grids.

Reacting to the report, Future Energy Networks CEO James Earl said, “Building on a diverse and growing evidence base, NESO’s Future of Energy Scenarios report reinforces how Britain’s gas networks have a crucial role to play in accelerating our journey to Clean Power by 2030 and Net Zero by 2050.”

“It is crystal clear that we need to use every tool in the box if we are to meet our ambitious national climate targets, including our world-class gas infrastructure.”

Earl added that the report “outlines a clear and rapidly evolving role for green gases, with a particular emphasis on significantly scaling-up biomethane volumes,” and said embracing gases such as hydrogen and biomethane would “enable us to decarbonise quicker while bolstering energy security, driving economic growth and minimising disruption to people’s lives.”

However, some experts have raised concerns around the practical limitations of relying on green gases for heating. In its latest progress report, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) warned that the UK remains “significantly off track” on heat decarbonisation targets, citing low uptake of heat pumps and electricity prices that remain too high relative to gas. 

The CCC also said that hydrogen is unlikely to play a widespread role in domestic heating, instead calling for a sharper focus on electrification through heat pumps and improved energy efficiency.

The NESO report highlights that scaling up biomethane and hydrogen infrastructure will require urgent policy clarity and market mechanisms. Electrolytic hydrogen production is projected to rise to as much as 173 TWh by 2050 under the Hydrogen Evolution pathway, which assumes the roll-out of a national hydrogen network and hydrogen boilers in homes alongside industrial decarbonisation.

Across all scenarios, NESO stresses the importance of whole system planning and smart technologies. Demand-side flexibility alone could reduce peak electricity demand by 54% by 2050, with vehicle-to-grid technologies potentially supplying up to 41 GW of flexibility capacity at peak.

NESO’s modelling also shows that the pathway to net-zero could shift investment patterns – from operational spending on imported fossil fuels to capital expenditure on low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. This could reduce consumer exposure to price shocks and unlock opportunities for economic growth and skilled jobs across the country.

The Holistic Transition pathway is the only scenario to meet both the 2030 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions. It relies on a broad mix of electrification, low-carbon fuels and early deployment of carbon capture and negative emissions technologies such as BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage).